Sept 22nd, 2010: Update 4 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on September 22, 2010
11:00 pm EST: 5-min and 60-min chart updates added.
6:35 pm EST: Today’s wave 4 of v-(1) correction down to 1131.58 held above the wave 1 of v-(1) high of 1127.36 for the alternate count (in blue). This sets up the potential for a new high above 1148.58 for wave 5 of v-(1). My target is 1154, where wave 5=1.
The primary count is that the 17 point drop today from yesterday’s 1148.58 high was wave a-(2). I’m expecting wave c-(2) to be 1.62*a or 28 points. If the b-(2) wave ended today just below the 1137 pivot, then c-(2) should reach the 1107 pivot support.
SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
john said
thank you
mmdonner said
Hi Steve, well, i have to say that i get confused reading your words and looking at the chart and trying to find the match between the words u use and the symbols on the chart(s)
BUT i am not an EW literate, not even close. I see that many of those who comment are very versed in EW, some even have their own blogs.
I wonder who your market is? seems that some of those most EW literates (like springheel jack, alpha etc might not ‘need’ your services. but, maybe there are others like myself who find the WORDS invaluable and easy to understand, minus the EW coding/counting.
so, if you could perhaps do both..and sometimes u seem to do so well, simply and clearly say something like: “IF we don’t break below 1127 quite soon, we will probably target 1157″ or, if we break above 1148 again soon we will probably target xx…or, if we DO break below 1127 there is a good chance we will drop to 1107 and then perhaps to 1090″
or some such.
I’ve no doubt u have a good handle on the markets via yoiur counts and i’ve no doubts that yoiur charts are very professional (should that be your pocketbook market)…but frankly and reluctantly, i have to say i get confused when you don’t spell it out in simple english terms and targets and rough timelines.
Kindly and respectfully submitted, Michael
pugsma said
Sorry. I thought I’ve been clear with this count today. I’ve been saying since yesterday’s EOD, to eliminate the alternate count for a new near-term high above 1148.58 the level of 1127.36 must be breached to the downside. It clearly was not breached today, as the drop to 1131.58 held above 1127.35. So for the alternate count, today we put in a wave 4 low and we have the potential for a wave 5 higher, high above 1148.58. This higher high would occur by tomorrow or Friday. You can see the blue target circle at 1154 for the complete of wave (1) and time frame of tomorrow on the chart.
Now for the primary count today’s low of 1131.58 was just the first a-wave down of an a-b-c Zig-Zag for wave (2). So today’s 17 point a-(2) wave, means that a b-wave corrective back up should occur next. It looks like we had a small b-wave up from 1131 to 1137 that was rejected at the 1137 pivot. So next I’m expecting a 28 point drop for c-(2) down to about the 1107. This should occur over the next 2 to 4 trading days. Again there is white circle target at 1107 forwave (2) early next week.
So what to watch for tomorrow is that if we head below 1127.36 it confirms the primary count that we are headed towards 1107. If we break back above the 1137 pivot, then watch for a new high around 1154 for the alternate count.
mmdonner said
Thanks Steve! yes u were clear today..but tonite’s post seemed confusing..your recap just now is very clear and that is exactly what i had imagined.
what u say just now seems ilogical in some ways:
yoiur alternative count takes us up very fast”tomroow 1154″ Whereas the primary count takes us down to 1107 over 2-4 trading days.
seems to this novice that the primary shoiuld take less time then the alt expressed above. ??
finally, when you say “primary” do yoiu mean that is yoiur preferred count? i think yoiu expressed that at 60/40 still??
therefore, wouldn’t it make more ‘sense’ (to me) for you to express your primary count first and alt second easier for me to follow and feel internally for focus.
but, mostly, thanks for being clear actually..disregard all the rest as u wish. Michael
pugsma said
I almost always discuss my primary count first, but tonight with the support holding I decided to list the alternate count first. They are about equal weighted. Even if we get the alteranate count new higher high to 1154 for wave (1), we are still going to have the wave (2) retrace later in time.
Yash said
Pug ..again my time thing.. primary count wave 1 lasted for almost 20 calender days (i am lazy to count trading days right now) and if 2 ends tommrrow at 1107 then it will be 3 trading days. Its possible becuase it met price target but again i feel time factor is not correct.
pugsma said
First of all, my (2) wave low on the chart is set for next Tuesday or 5 tradings days from this Tuesday’s peak of 1148.58. There were 15 trading days from the 1040 low the the 1148.58 peak. 5days/15days is 33% in time and I’m expecting a 38% to 50% retrace in price, so there is uniformity with price and time there. Never-the-less, time for a correction can be much shorter duration than the price of the correction in E-wave.
Now, if you want to talk frankly about a bad price and and time prediction, why don’t you remind everyone again about your 4 year presidential cycle low of Oct 5th being below the July low of 1011. Nearly dialy since I made the July low call you have reminded me that the Oct 5th low will be around 950. How’s that been working out for your trades?
Yash said
Its Oct 8 and not 5 .. also it was just same as you called P2 ended on may flash crash low then 1040 and then 1010 and that is Pug P2…but then on weekend you have your own 8 points for P1 to continue too… I had said before also 3-5 yrs from now all this counts will be different becuase live counting never (I have gone through Tony C blog of 10 yrs.. yours is not that old) remains same and different count is put on charts later on to look it good and attract newer people that time … so everyone is on same boat .. everyone is got short memory .. when we were at 1131 in augest we were not supposed to go to 1040 again by any of your post too but we went … sorry to ask you about time/price as you don’t like it …
Lana said
Steve,
Thanks so much for the clarification. And thank you Mmdonner. I too sometimes find my eyes crossing. The EWavers instantly understand Steve’s posts and most the time I can decipher them. There are quite a few times Steve’s updates clear things up for me. Other times it takes me 15 to 20 to grasp the count.
Sure wish I had spent all those hours on EW instead the myriad of technical indicators, cycles, candlestick formations, chart patterns etc.
But whether I have to work abit Steve, you are invaluable….Thank you for your work.
pugsma said
Hey Lana. I try to made it fun for the reader.
Tony D said
Steve, Exellent explanation. I like the way you validated the wave not breaking down through wave 3 top at 1127.36. Totally respected EW rules.
Simply put, a break above 1137 pivot smells like a run to 1158, a break below 1127.36 smells like a drop to 1107.
Also, thanks for giving us a mid-day analysis.
pugsma said
Hey Tony. Thanks and welcome here.
pugsma said
11:00 pm EST: 5-min and 60-min chart updates added.
aurelia0001 said
Thanks Steve
steveo said
Boatload O Charts for your bearish delight….
During the ramp, every time I posted a Boatload O Bear, the market would rally.
This shall be the litmus test. Please comment.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
Tony D said
Pug, the rules you set for us Wednesday night going into Thursday were impeccable. That 1137 held very well. Bravo!
Pug, Could you show us a sample of the comments you post to your subscribers. Like, what format do you use? What do they look like?