Dec 10th, 2010: Update 5 – EOD – IT Top !
Posted by pugsma on December 10, 2010
5:15 pm EST: VIX Buy, SPX Sell signal today: VIX black bar near lower BB.
VIX Daily Chart (EOD):
4:50 pm EST: There is a good chance that the SP-500 topped for the Intermediate Term, IT, (2-3 months) at 1240.40 today. VIX daily reversal candle confirmation (+2.0 VIX move) and DOW-30 non-confirmation of the new SP-500 high are both bearish indicators for the IT term.
Primary count is that major [1]-P3 ended at 1240.40 today with minute wave (5) of minor 5 terminating in an Ending Diagonal (ED) with a small over-throw. The first significant target for the developing major wave [2]-P3 correction is minor A-[2]-P3 at 1177/1187 pivot support. There is gap at 1180/1187 that needs filling. This A-[2]-P3 wave should take 2 to 3 weeks or the end of 2010. Minor B-[2]-P3 should bounce to the 1219/1229 pivot area by mid-January Q4 earnings season. Finally minor wave C-[2]-P3 will terminate in the 1153 area in mid-Feb 2010 for a 38% retrace of major [1]-P3. So what we are looking at here is a minimum 87 point -7.0% correction for major [2]-P3. There are certainly deeper correction targets of 1126 (50% retrace) and 1098 (62% retrace), but 1153 is the minimum target.
Alternate count is that an ascending triangle for wave (4) broke-out today with a wave (5) target of 1251 by Tuesday, 12/14. This would finish up at the Inverse H&S target of 1251 off the 1011 low of late June 2010 with neckline at 1229. The major wave [2]-P3 correction from this alternate count are virtually the same as for the primary. The 1257 pivot resistacne should stop this alternte count if it decides to make a new high above 1240.40 next week.
Have a great weekend !!!
SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):
Laura Young said
Great calls from Steve and helpful input from the community — this is one-stop shopping
Thanks to everyone — much appreciated
pugsma said
Thanks Laura…have a nice weekend.
scoca1 said
Pug,
Look at 1998 (mid-term election year), and what happened after SPX broke above the late spring/early summer high of 1190. Notice the choppy handle in November 1998, very similar to this November. I have placed the marker where we are in equivalent price and time.
http://tinyurl.com/2dspak9
Steve
pugsma said
I don’t use historical analogies in my modern day technical charting. But if you think Dec 2010 is like Dec 1998, good luck with that.
john-b said
I see the potential for that same 1998 scenario mid-term election playing out. Of course the minute waves may be different but I expect us to clear resistance levels and then move on up from there. It fits very well with mid-term election analysis that has been mentioned here and many places.
Still holding my ATML, RFMD, and USD semi’s. Should run more yet this year into the first of next year. Then I tend to drop much of the tech stuff very early January as they often hit the pause/correct button before the indexes. And for sure pick them all up for the spring tech – small cap rally.
charlie said
Thanks for your charts, but the VIX and ISEE are couple of days bullish to me.
steffanchr said
Thank you Steve, the volume analysis indicates that the alternate count may be in play (it indicates more bull to come). But for the sake of everyones safety I will say that Steve is alot more experienced in analysis than me. Im just pointing out that today showed some bull development in the 60min chart, however sbv oscillator is sitting just below the critical level on both 60min and 2day chart.
15min chart which is very short timeframe, showed that the current bull cycle may be ending, but there was no increase in sell volume, which however is continued bullish.
Good weekend all, Steffan
pugsma said
Steffan…good info…thanks for sharing.
steffanchr said
No problem Steve, Im just happy that everybody contributes to better trading by providing many perspectives. And by engaging myself in the volume analysis I hope I can do my part aswell.
I posted an EOD analysis with charts:
http://spxvolumeanalysis.wordpress.com/
BR, Steffan
jeffyla said
Major deceleration in spy volume this week…fits perfectly with a triangle or ED.
pugsma said
Yes. Good points.
Michael Pitre said
Let’s see what the financials do and in particular the bank index next week. right near resistance and getting overbought but. Do we fail or blast through is the question in my mind.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KBE&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p30821762120&a=191325363&listNum=30
cpatrader said
MP, my bet is that it breaks up since I sold my FAS at the close today:)
Michael said
If you connect your primary count path into February I see a head shoulders could form, followed by a neck line break. If played out the neckline break once again sucks in the bears into February before resuming up trend. Lots to happen before then but interesting to consider.
pugsma said
Yes, yes, yes…we are setting up larger and larger IHS’s on the SPX.
Also, the Nasday-100 (NDX) is right at the 2007 top today. This set-ups a neckline on the NDX and we need a pull-back to form a left shoulder on NDX.
jeffyla said
Wow…26-55 on the qqqq’s last couple years, would give a break of neckline a target of 84 in a few years…fits right in w your longer term.
Mike S said
Anyone, where do you c the qqqqs or the same NDX headed into this correction..
vix 30
qqqqs 48
jeffyla said
I see vix 26-28 and qqqq’s 47-50, ya spot on.
Mike S said
big gap on the vix @ 30….
Mike S said
one more thing.. wheres is the neckline. trying to find a chart. thanks
Mike S said
Maybe Pug could tell us more… right shoulder for NDX.. thanks
Michael Pitre said
AD volume for nasdaq.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p42243883958&listNum=9&a=216289240
diablos22 said
Hi Steve,
Is there an issue with this count, assuming iii has a little left so its not the smallest wave? Just an EW question.
http://screencast.com/t/uzBzkag8k3z
Thanks in advance!
Michael Pitre said
AD nyse. I see the same thing on the shorter term charts as others here. But at the same time the nasdaq looks good to me right here from a volume/accumulation basis. NYSE is improving as the summation got a turn up today… we should know soon enough.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p10098795205&listNum=9&a=216289501
Jmcaule4 said
Today’s ISE Sentiment Index closed at 230, which is the highest reading since January 30, 2006 (232). The 10-day moving average of NYSE TRIN closed at .604 today, which is the most overbought reading in 20 years (May 15, 1990 at .602). The 10-week moving average of the percentage of bulls in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll is at a six year extreme.
jeffyla said
Bingo! Hope bulls can sleep this weekend knowing they are in the minority.
Bob said
Ignore sentiment indicators for December, just noise. OPX coming up, very bullish for markets….
jeffyla said
Not when ‘current pain’ is 122 on spy and its currently pushing 125…
jeffyla said
3 items…www.ise.com Today’s Investor Sentiment reading was 230, the highest reading in almost 5 years. Major optimism and call buying.
10 day NYSE TRIN closed at .604. That is the most overbought since May 15, 1990.
Lastly, AAII Sentiment Survey 10 week moving average % of bulls posted 49.3 this week. That is the most extreme since December 2004.
Food for thought. I’m sure the bulls will sleep well this weekend knowing they are in the minority
Gary said
I like your asc triangle Alternate better for SPX
TZA appears to need 2 more lower lows to complete 5w dn sequence (from 22.38 mid Nov hi)—1st one at monday open near 15.85-16 (spx higher).Today’s low was 16.10.
CalC said
Curious as to what you base those projections on.
Michael Pitre said
Volume….if this continues on its present course and I am not at all saying it will…we go higher.
http://tinyurl.com/2ftrcrr
Tmf said
Interesting Jim Rorbach got a NYSE buy signal at the close today. NASDAQ has been on a buy for a little over a week. I wonder if he gets whipsawed. It does happen to his system but he does catch all the major trends up or down.
Ratbastrd said
Something else to consider. CPC has been at a relative extreme low the lately. All the while institutional hedging is at extremely high levels. Look at the COT report attached. Given the overbought conditions and big divergences, it would not be that hard for the big institutions to push the market down next week catching retail traders off guard and make a killing on OPEX.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AlYX72AsAKMUclFGVDFib2cwR3EydzRSZkRyZHF1RHc&hl=en_GB&output=html
Instigator said
Interesting, Rb…
Prampolini said
Dear Steve (PUG),
Your analyses have been excellent, you called this bull mkt rally very well, and rode most of it up. Why would u be calling a top all of a sudden?
I thought you were on the right track last week when you said 1291 was in the cards before the year is out. I tend to agree with that. We are entering the most bullish seasonal phase. The FED has put a floor on the mkt, they will keep bidding up assets, they’ve openly said they want stocks to go up and that’s the point of QE2. The tax cuts for the wealthy is another move to make the bankers happy so they buy buy buy. I live in NYC and the really expensive stores are packed with people to full capacity and people are lining up in the freezing cold to get in the shops!!! A friend of mine who is an investment banker just took his family to Paris for 5 days vacation and the trip cost him $48,000. People ARE back to spending, those that can afford it at least.
I would not call a top in this mkt so early. I think your target of 1291 is spot on, with all the tailwinds out there and the fact that mkt has rallied in the face of any negative event means it will go much higher until it is way overbought, most likey third week of Janusary, then you can put out shorts for a short term correction of 5-10%. Until then, it’s risk on i’m afraid.
jeffyla said
Pug is only calling for 7-10% pullback…that’s not a big deal.
Prampolini said
I just want to add, I have a problem withh AAII sentiment indicators. It showed the same amount of excessive bullishness in mid-september and in october as well, and the mkt rallied alot nevertheless. I do believe that excessive bullishness is almost always a precursor to a nice size correction if not a top. However, all the hedge fund people i’ve talked to are actually very bearish on the economy. They don’t belive in a recovery at all. The only reason they are buying stocks is becasue the FED is supporting asset prices, it’s the reflation trade, don’t fight the FED.
Everyone is waiting for the next shoe to drop. That’s why I think the market continues to rally from here before it has a 5% pullback. i think the surprise will be to the upside as far as newsflow goes.
I know everyone here is a daytrader and so they are looking for short opportunities in a bull mkt. I am too, but it’s never good to step in front of the locoomotive too early. As a rule i never short when the mkt is going down, i only short when the mkt has had a massive multiday move up.
The S&P has just today freshly broken out of the April high and retest from november. The real rally is just beginning.
john-b said
7-10% (100 point) pull back is a very big deal at this time of year and under these circumstances. This has been a melt-up with no broken rules of game playing and nothing more then a 15 point drop so far I think.
john-b said
Well stated. I totally agree. I do not think we have seen the top yet. Sure there may be some small pullbacks. Maybe a 20 point pull back next week after we go a little higher. But all of my volume analysis showed increasing strength today. It was really impressive the increase in volume internal strength. And even more people adding to bull funds and pulling from bear funds. People are buying into this. Even the NYAD issues started a jump up today. The market is working through consolidation issues without a pull back. This is all the signs of a continuation of the gradual grind upward. No jump upwards just grinding it out to year end and maybe a little longer. Dec 20 is double QE day 17B in one day.
The MM’s are respecting the BB’s Bollinger bands and not doing any flash run-ups to break the rules. Most likely a top will be called when we get a flash pop up with all indexes (small, mid, large caps) above the upper BB band for several days in a row. That is the way minor wave 3 ended. 3 days in a row with closing above upper BB band for all indexes. They are being very careful in this grind upward to try to let it run longer in a carefully controlled state.
I still hold all my longs but have nothing rated risky or highly leveraged. I am basically a several week to several month type of trader. So I try to follow an intermediate trend (minor and minute waves depends on the type of position) until it breaks. Sometimes I do longer period trading as I sometimes like to hold some key stocks for a longer time.
I see a possible near term high about Dec 22. Then a pause and probably more up after that. 1250 peg for OPEX maybe next week.
Just my thoughts but unless something really changes I am trading to this and holding my conservative portfolio of longs.
ETF’s – RFG, VBK, XRT, XLY, USD,
Stocks – CAT, DLTR, FDO, ALXN, COST, ATML, RFMD, UA.
Good luck all.
Sking was great today.
john-b
cpatrader said
John B, Decent volume on small candles is a sign that institutions are selling to the small buyers since the small guy can only buy 50 shares at a time. The institutional investor is standing at the door selling in the small increments to 1000 guys waiting to get in. What you want to see is big candles being confirmed with volume. This large candle shows the level of agressiveness of the buying and the small guy does not have the power to create that level of agressiveness, But the folks that we send our 401k money to every two weeks do (and those like them). They are the ones we want to follow since they dictate the market’s movement. Something to consider.
john-b said
Thanks. good points to consider, and I will try to be aware of that, trying to keep an open mind. But unless we get more room under the upper BB band we cannot have big candles in a melt-up without breaking the rules and creating a buying exhaustion top. So we continue to get some distribution mixed with enough buying to push it up. I do not want to see large candles breaking the upper BB bands. Small and steady is fine with me. So far it is being played to perfection.
The profit taking pause to refresh may happen at 1260-1265? the week before Christmas break about Dec 21-22? A point to do some selling/profit taking for some before the holiday. I may take some off the table then also and let the rest run. Best to sell some on strength. And then we see if it goes on up after the Xmas break. Most likely it will.
People who have money are spending a lot more this year so the earnings reports in Jan-Feb may not be too bad and the drop then may not be too large before the spring rally. If I get a sense of that play I may let 25% of my longs ride all the way through to late April for a longer term investment type trade. In that case Major wave [2] may be a flat like it was in 1998. That is my own primary longer term wave pattern count at this time. I know the bears won’t like that count. But it is possible just like many other things to consider.
mark090709 said
Almost got into cash yesterday after a long time. Today got some stuff long(very small) with sso short as a hedge. Give me the pullback zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz so that I can buy back some good leaders lol
Great work Steve!
john-b said
Good luck,
If the melt-up continues there may be no obvious good dip to buy. That is the way minor wave 3 was. You just had to jump in and pray. Many/most were left standing on the sidelines for most of the action waiting for an obvious dip to buy for wave 3.
If you are looking to buy individual stocks many of the market leaders have been quietly consolidating and still have good entry points before they take off more. Mmany are just starting to perk up now. If you like tech stocks NFLX and FFIV just got added to the S&P 500 index today. So maybe they will go up more now that they are in another major trading index. I had both of them and dropped them during their correction. I may buy them both back on Monday? FFIV is still solid and NFLX only has that net neutrality issue in its closet to maybe hold it back in another month or so out.
Charles said
Well,one thing…it’s going to take a lot of selling,of a lot of stock,across the board from all sectors,(Banks,Techs,Oils,Energy,etc-etc) to get the S&P and the DJIA to take a nice big meaningful hit(3 to 5%) in the next couple of weeks. Right now..I’m wondering who is going to be selling all that stock in mass to get those numbers down ? -Anyway..I hope we do see a 60 to 80 pt correction here on the SPX. But a lot of things like Goldman Sachs(and all major banks),for instance, has to take a big hit to get it done. In GS’s case…we’d need them to lose around 10%.. and get GSback down to around 152.Same 10% hit needed, goes for all other major sectors.I’d sure love to see it. I don’t know. We’ll see.Fingers crossed.
Gary said
cycles suggest that somehow the Top has to occur on or after Dec 24–not now—ideak would be D31 or J4/5
Am wondering if we are doing an EDR but 1240ish was just the 1 of that EDT and we keep grinding higher in an overlapping way into year end
Radrian said
Bullish trends generate a lot of small, positive daily changes like we had today. As a top forms, volume and volatility tend to increase as the daily price swings widen. The price pattern in a top tends to be rounded and forms a dscrete neckline that may be tested several times before breaking. Good examples of the above occurred in January, April, and August of this year.
I haven’t seen any indication of topping action but I certainly acknowledge that we’ve rallied for three months and there are a number of bearish indications out there. The markets are not pure, of course, there will always be mixed signals.
If a top does begin to form next week, it should be obvious to all of us. Let me suggest that we keep an eye on 1227 as a potential breakpoint (neckline) for a top.
Cheers
Instigator said
PUG – I appreciate you calling it the way you see it. I just noticed that Daneric jumped on board with Minute [v] of Minor 5 today with a 1246 target.
We’re making ice out East: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XydjXEbK-c
Tmf said
IBD mentioned the decent action in leading stocks this week. Many are setting up in 3 week tight patterns. I have found you need leaders to breakdown usually first before the indexes do. I am watching pcln aapl amzn NFLx cmg to show signs of weakness before initiating shots. IMHO.
Tony-D said
Oh ye of little faith.
Elliot Wave doesn’t care if you shop at Tiffaney’s for Christmas. It’s a mathematical progression. The events wrap around EW not the opposite. Right now it says Ending Diagonal. Can you know today what will happen Sunday? The event will eventually show up. Presidential assasination, a China retaliation, North Korea, anything can happen.
And, if that is not enough, PUG has been right 99% of the time. So, let’s not kill the messenger. Well, not this messenger.
cpatrader said
Here is the fun part. Let’s try to come up with the story they will blame. They used Greece back in May, the country with the size economy as one of our states. What did Greece have to do with Appple stock ?
Yes. That is the reason behind the nearly 200 point correction in the S&P. OK right.
Two weeks earlier – in April. Steve called for that 1010 level.
Setting the obvious aside like planes flying into building or the like it is best to turn off the TV and use the charts. Wall Street can’t make big money without the drama and hence volitility.
Tony-D said
Exactly – well said. In other words, the wave forshadows the event. They will find a story to explain the wave after it’s too late.
mikey said
Events?
How about the SEC indicting Hedge Funds and Banksters for Insider Trading? What would that do to the price of GS ? Or, how about a nasty spike in Chinese interest rates, say, up 50 bp Sunday night? Well, let’s watch the Hang Seng Index Sunday for clues. And, don’t forget Nancy Pelosi and the Dems might just succeed in preventing the passing of the Bush Tax Cut extension.
VIX is cheap. Time to buy some 2-3 month out-of-the-money SPY puts !
Michael Pitre said
you can see from this chart from vix and more how the stimulus or lack thereof affects the market.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_931wANibTqw/TPVTC1SfEnI/AAAAAAAABuA/UTGZBNOa9u0/s1600/2010-11-30.png
Michael Pitre said
so much for plunge protection during the last bear.
Michael Pitre said
very interesting concept to read about.
One of the more interesting ones that I have not seen get much in the way of media attention is the Market Psych Fear Index. This index is constructed by using a 10-day exponential moving average of the percentage of “fear” words in the U.S. financial news. In the chart below, the Market Psych Fear Index is the solid blue line and the candlesticks are the NASDAQ-100 index (QQQQ).
As the construction of this fear index is based on language in the financial media, the fear index makes it possible to compare market-based fear measures such as the VIX and other volatility indices with the degree of public concern or perhaps even fear mongering found in the media.
One would expect that the Market Psych Fear Index and stocks to generally move in opposite directions, just as is the case with the VIX and stocks. While this is the case more often than not, the chart below shows that in the last month or so, as stocks have been rising, the movements in stocks and the Market Psych Fear Index have been positively correlated. What does this mean? Perhaps all the talk of the European sovereign debt crisis and North Korean aggression is starting to wear thin. Perhaps the media is not quite able to stir up fear like it has in the past. Of course, perhaps Occam’s razor would say that investors are being naïve.
In any event, VIX futures are predicting that the VIX will rise almost 50% by the middle of 2011.
At a minimum, I think the divergence between market-based and language-based fear indicators bear further watching.
Finally, the Market Psych web site has some interesting content, not the least of which is sentiment-based analysis of stocks and ETFs, but also an excellent collection of free personality tests for traders and investors.
http://www.marketpsych.com/mkt_analysis.php
pugsma said
Nice Seeking Alpha Article using Bespoke Chart showing the SP-500 is now entring “Extreme” Overbought condition. The Major wave [2]-P3, 7 to 10% correction is on the horizon. It’s only a matter of when, not if.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/241265-s-p-s-most-overbought-close-in-more-than-a-year?source=dashboard_macro-view
Ratbastrd said
Nice one here by Michael Eckert (Columbia 1)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TQOvshSFjjI/AAAAAAAAEhg/OuA-pWI5PuI/s1600/trin-11-1.png
He has a good update this weekend. Worth taking a look at.
http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/week-end-observations_11.html
Moe said
Comment section won’t open for some reason Steve
pugsma said
Huh? You just posted a comment and so did I.
Moe said
The comment section wont open on my iphone. I am posting through laptop. Maybe Mt Iphone messed up
Tim Landers said
I was having same issue on my Dell Streak (android o/s) but was able to do it just a couple of days ago.
Prampolini said
Moe,
I had same problem friday night trying to access comments from my iPhone4.
It worked when i got on my Macbook.
gann360 said
Very Interesting SPX DAILY Observation 100% Fib Extension : 1242-1245 ish
http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/492031df-6ec4-491d-b839-254e13dd3bfa
pugsma said
Love it! Great chart Joey.
Laredo11 said
So interesting to see that even people who have made vast profits following Steve’s work are loathe to believe this latest call. Whether Pug is vindicated remains to be seen, but those who fade his short term bearish analysis are betting on a market that is overbought and overloved and at resistance.
The CRB and gold have double tops. A nice multi-week correction based upon another bogus deflationary scare would bring everything right back to strong support and alleviate overbought conditions. The US dollar had a false breakdown and has bounced; if that bounce becomes a strong countertrend rally then the corrective scenario for all these markets falls into place.
paulsgs said
What I like about the call is BE READY. Although POMO is a strong up reason for the market not to totally tank ie-500 points a 7-10% correction sure is due. Pug can you move the correction to Wednesday so my 3 days to clear funds lapse? LOL good work.
Cw said
Marketoracle.co.uk Nadeem predicted US Dollar Index will plunge to 74 by early Feb. I am monitoring US Dollar Index as it is nuetural now but some other currencies are showing some strenghth hanging there (Aussi looks like IHS, Euro looks like digesting the good bounce from Nov. 30th and still holding on 50% retracement of the bounce) . If Dollar make decisive direction the next a few days either up or down, it would give us some hints how long this wave would go.
Toad37 said
Great VIX chart Steve, here is my look at it. With potential target.
http://www.screencast.com/users/toad37/folders/Jing/media/fd5c73d9-577f-432b-8f96-3b69d6026a54
Gary said
fwiw speculation dept only
there is a story floating around the internet (www.hudson-ny.org:80/1714/iran-missiles-in-venezeula)
saying Iran is going to station nukes in Venezuela. Not main street news so maybe unreliable
In my view, it is too early for a Top but a fast drop to test 1200 on D17 would be a mkt shooter’s dream given the hugely overbought stats at present—so just per chance might we have finished only wave 1 of an EDT from N29 1174 at the D10 close/D13 open and then we see 1200ish D17 for w2 and then finish 3,4 and 5 into early January??
There are several canny traders anticipating a rough few months in 2011 amidst all the rampant unchecked, to the moon bullishness at present
Ray Merriman’s free blurb done Fri night says to expect “strange,remarkable and highly bizarre” trading for at least the next 7td
Gary said
Adv GET Weekly on SPX has a ‘make or break’ target near 1330-60ish by mid Feb, which are usually approached–doesn’t have to hit inside that range, just get close and could be earlier than mid-Feb…eg early-mid Jan eg
Toad37 said
XOM may have a little more upside, but I like the idea of a pretty nice correction in that to help help S&P to the down side.
http://www.screencast.com/users/toad37/folders/Jing/media/7c52e21b-6b7d-4dfc-88ff-c7317c15a638
Michael Pitre said
I like this web site…this shows one reason to be somewhat cautious of the market here. The moving average is falling. Just pick an indicator and pick an index.
http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-djia-stocks-above-50d-sma-params-3y-x-x-20ma/
Michael Pitre said
spx
http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-above-50d-sma-params-3y-x-x-20ma/
Toad37 said
Longer term look at the VIX. This may go well with Pug’s call for more gas in a bull-market.
http://www.screencast.com/users/toad37/folders/Jing/media/0a834cd7-b258-4a6e-956b-e4f7cd731a2c
Michael Pitre said
Nasdaq breadth and chart is indicating higher prices..we’ll see.
nasdaq breadth vs nyse breadth
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NASI&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p40207590067&a=193754675&listNum=30
Gary said
based solely on stan harley’s cycles–mkt will either top out on Jan 5 ish (40td from N5 top)….or … Feb8 ish (64tds from N5 top).
Harley is a cycles expert with a wide following
Michael Pitre said
The cup and handle.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p73288258630&a=194220811&listNum=30
kyborn said
that should be 196 points not 96. makes a big difference
LordTed said
Excellent Stuff PUG.
All seems rather early for a Santa rally ot run out so soon?
January makes more sense. Still when has sense made any diffference to the manipulated market.