Feb 11th, 2011: Update 4 – Afternoon
Posted by pugsma on February 11, 2011
3:00 pm EST: Looks at the 60-min chart below and notice how this impulsive minor 3 of major [3] of primary P3 wave has “accelerated” from the purple channel to the steeper light blue channel and now the steepest green channel. Classic wave 3 price action.
SP-500 60-min chart (2:54 pm):
2:15 pm EST: The primary count just needs one more high above 1328.80 for wave 5-v-(5) of 3-[3]-P3 to considered complete. Could come later today or Monday. I still have 1333 as the v=0.62*i target. The maximum for wave v-(5) is 1342, based on the primary count so as wave iii-(5) does not become the shortest wave in the impulse.
I think the best way to count the bullish alternate count (blue) is not how I had it labeled at mid-day, but rather this way. The next high above 1329 (i.e. 1333 to 1342) should be the end of wave iii-(5) and then there will be a wave iv-(5) retrace to about 1325 followed by a v-(5) run up the 1363. The important thing this count has going for it, is that wave iii-(5) will be longer than wave i-(5) and that makes it a more typical E-wave impulse. So this alternate count is looking very good. And it would be very satisfying in E-wave terms to see wave 3-[3]-P3 peak our near the 1363 pivot in a parabolic move that began in early Feb.
SP-500 5-min chart (2:03 pm):
SP-500 15-min chart (2:04 pm):
pugsma said
Opps…I left this post unprotected…consider it an early Valentines Day gift the World of Stock Traders!
john said
thank you
pugsma said
Oh what a beautiful, channeling impulsive wave up off the 1275 low. Everyone remember my “Giddy Up” post last Friday afternoon around this same time with the SP-500 at 1310.
ROX said
It has been a great week. Thanks Steve.
pugsma said
Thanks ROX.
toad37 said
Nice call Steve- you are hot to trot my man!
pugsma said
Watch it there Todd…you are not my type!
We need more female traders. I seems the female traders I’ve consversed on this blog and others love to use cycle analysis more than E-wave. Why is that ladies?
Maybe is something to do math (E-wave, fibs, etc) and male Engineers/Accoutants vs the females and their cycles…
toad37 said
Maybe we need to post some pictures of you and Joey in your Speedo’s at the beach? That should get the ladies signing up!
pugsma said
Todd…very funny but I live in Chicago and it’s been sub zero this week. But you comment made me lol thinking of that Miller Lite commerial with the guy in the “European” style swim suit.
Dianemw said
I can’t speak for any other ladies- I am better at following than leading in this space
I really have learned to appreciate EW – but more – the great work you do steve and all of the wonderful comments and analysis from everyone else – I was ready to throw in the towel on investing – and now I am having fun and making a little $ thanks to you all—
jeff said
Luvin my UPRO!
I intend to sell at the end of the day and get some flowers and a Sonos system for the wife!
pugsma said
Sweet, but hey don’t forget your mistress Jeff.
jeff said
nope. that was a previous life (e.g. Brazil). happily married now for over 5 years and have my hands full with my 4 year old daughter!
steve-h said
Prepare for an early arrival to the 1333 area.
Damon said
What about oil.. and USO?? I remember on your uso chart… $85 was right at the bottom of the channel… is anyone buying at this price?
pugsma said
$85 if still my line in the sand for bullish Oil count I showed early this week.
Damon said
Maybe, I will wait and see what happens early monday morning.
pugsma said
Just looked at the RSI and MACD oscillators on USO. Look very bearish to me. Even though my E-wave count on Oil had $85 as the bottom here, I’m not buying it until other TA improves. For USO A break below 35.50 could brign 34.50 to 34.0 or about $80 Oil.
OSUBucks said
Just remember as long as crude is in contango USO is an awful for proxy as it will continue to underperform the flat price moves in crude over time b/c the managers will continual lose value on the roll (to avoid going to physical delivery). I wouldn’t get long USO unless the crude curve moves to backwardation, regardless if I thought the entire curve was going to move up.
halukn said
Steve, what do you think about the count from Jan 12? Seems like we might have finished an ABC (5-3-5)? Can this be a wave 4 correction in CL with further highs to come? Maybe lines up with your alternate SP500 count? Thnks.
pugsma said
Yes, cold be a wave major [4] flat on Oil…now beginning major wave [5] going into the spring. But, I’d to see it base awhile above $85 to correct the oscillators.
halukn said
Thanks.
Keith said
Steve,
MY first post. I just sold TNA for a nice profit. Many thanks to you and your analysis. Very pleased with your service.
pugsma said
You are welcome Keith. Glad you find the service profitable. Enjoy your weekend!
Radrian said
I’ve maintained an hourly channel for the ES since early December. The channel broke to the downside only once and that was on January 28; it has never broken to the upside. Assuming the ES continues higher, it would reach channel resistance near 1331 (1335 cash market). If the ES manages to push through the top and hold, I’ll assume the run up to SPX 1363 is on.
Braj said
Pug,
How about a primary count target of 1333.58 an exact double off the bottom.
pugsma said
100% gains for the SP-500 bulls. Hip-Hip Hooray!
Who here can claim to have been long the SP-500 since 667? Anyone…Bueller…Anyone?
Rick said
I wish I had! I find your service here works very well.
dbwebhead said
Long AAPL since 667 if that counts ….
dreadwin said
Alas no, I can claim to be long equities, commodities and emerging markets since June 8th (around 1040) though!
Rick said
Thanks for the updates Steve. My TNA holdings sold this afternoon at a level I set this morning. The dollar is trending up and oil is still going down. I like it when things go as expected.
pugsma said
Nice trade Rick.
Michael said
Long AAPL since 667 if that counts …..
pugsma said
Wow…that is about a factor of 3.5 gain or 350%…I hope you had a lot of capital in that trade…great work!
pugsma said
Gann360 QQQQ’s hit near you $58.50 target at $58.48 so far today!
randy said
Thank you.
Buying that dip, still very profitable. lol
MBT said
Steve,
There was a post in the last week where you started to be concerned with the decreasing volume into the wedge—
Can you elaborate on that—-
SPY is making a new high on what will be at least 20% less volume
QQQQ new high on what will be about 30% less volume
pugsma said
Yes, the bearish risign wedge broke down and turned into a channel and SP-500 held above the 1315 pivot. SPX held support and showed increasing volume yesterday and that was bullish. Today we have a follow-thru in price and volume looks like it will be on pace with yesterday’s increase.
MBT said
Thanks for the response—
Not understanding the statement that volume will be on pace for yesterday’s increase—volume is much lighter today or am I misunderstanding how your looking at the volume metric?
pugsma said
I like to use On-Balance Volumue (OVB) which busted out in early Feb and confirmed this move up to 1331 thus far. But for this weeks volume I was just quickly looking at SPY and DOW-30 volume, which surged yesterday on the hold of key support.
MBT said
Thanks Steve,
I would like to take the award for the biggest F up on the Egypt resolution—
sold about 250 spy weekly calls this morning for a 11% loss out of fear of the lack of resolution—-vs. what would of been a 70% gain—
UN F N believable —-
Great calls this week in an incredibly difficult tape—
Im holding to a decent pull back on Monday-Tuesday
ROX said
I feel ya. I was too timid to increase my position this morning. Always more opportunities ahead.
Braj said
MBT it was a tough week for me as well. I had some momentum over the last couple of weeks, but we bounced too much this week and I got caught on the wrong side too often. I have no idea about Monday and Tuesday.
MBT said
Braj–
Incredibly hard market —realty is we were looking great at the close last night and then this idiot in Egypt makes a dying mans grasp—–
At the most I think Monday-Tues its a pull back down to the 1318-1320 level and then 1340 by the end of the week—We will probably see a slightly higher high on Monday morning—
Very small 1 billion POMO on Monday—
Mart said
Me too. Made some very good ones but made one very bad trade and came back to break even after all my efforts these last tw weeks…
aiihotline said
Don’t let news fool you. Just focus Steve’s counts and buy the dips. I was very doubful in the past a few weeks. But I finally jumpped in yesterday and this morning and really work out very well. Tks Steve!!
Mike T. said
Seems like youre letting the “noise” get to you. Pug is obviously this successful with his calls, because he filters that stuff out.
pugsma said
Mike T…great point…as you know have warned about that “white noise” here a number times and I cringe everytime I see someone comment that they made a trade based on the news.
swanny said
Yesterday I put on a long strangle…….the market went the way I wanted in the morning and watched the rest of the day as the position kept decaying to a 15% loss. I seldom buy options unless I’m looking for a home run. Prefer to sell options….although margin limits amount. You must have a humongus account to sell 250 calls. Was it a spread? You should try ES options as you can trade 24 hours. Helps when Pug sees a change EOD.
TA said
MBT, you got to trust the man. I was short this morning, albeit a small amount. When we crossed 1326 on ES, I reversed at 1324 with all I had. Got out at 1328. Covered the losses and then some. Point is – I was too early in taking a short position (glad I was unsure so took only a third). But when I was sure (well, Steve had something to do with it!) I rode it out as scripted. As someone alluded to earlier, it is possible we gap up and then crap on Monday. I will watching ES like a hawk for the tell tale signs.
All the best to you.
Denali92 said
Speaking of buying the dip – I do not think this market can go down until we gap up and then fall – every dip is bought aggressively (as it should be) and the only times we have really fallen is when we have gotten too exuberant at the close and the subsequent open (ie. Jan 18th / 19th, Jan 27th and 28th, Jan 3rd and 4th and Dec 10th and 13th (possibility for next week).
Interestingly, none of the recent dips that have been bought ever got to a st oversold state other than that mini meltdown on 3-Feb. That shows how incredibly strong this market has been…. and PUG will definitely tell us when we have that blow off top!
THANKS!
-D
titty said
hi steve,
I read your last post.
I confused.
where we are?
elliot wave impulse 3 of 5 or
3 of C the ABC Corrective?
Thanks
tony said
Interesting what the reads are for next week. I sold out of all longs (UPRO) at the end of the day and went short. Rough week holding my long position, but in the end it paid off. Thanks Pug for your accurate calls, it was a lifesaver. My vote is for Pug’s primary and that we either found the top today at the low 1330′s or we will go up a couple points more before the down turn (maybe to 1338). Good luck all.
TA said
Not sure if this has run out of steam yet. Pug’s primary count is we start going down and if that 67 days cycle thing is correct, we should start our downward journey on Monday. All we need is a catalyst. Unless the bots start selling on Monday for no apparent reason, I don’t see how we can go down. The volume has picked up in the last two days so that is a sign (distribution!) but is there enough to trigger a sell?
Pedro Peraira said
After two days of accumulation of long positions, there came the day to take the profit after a trip to 1312 and a real rocket until 1330.
Target planned for today in high, was also met 1328.11.
One of the objectives of the portfolio this year is to at least 50%, but it goes slowly, as indeed it should be.
Have a nice weekend.
http://spx500.blogspot.com/
Keith said
Up is up….jump on late and watch as the older long’s begin to walk away, as open interest drops. Just sit back and watch the markets continue higher on divergent open interest!!! Hmmmmmm…….
Keith
thedailyeminitrader.com