May 11th, 2011: Update 2 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on May 11, 2011
5-11-11: I’m offering $30 special for June of Q2-2011 where you will get the rest of May for free. Follow this link to sign-up.
5:05 pm EST: It’s fun to be a bear, sometimes. 
The primary count is right on track. Yesterday, the line in the sand for minor 2-[C]-P4 was at the 78% retrace of minor 1 at 1362 with (c)=(a) target of 1360. The market pushed my threshold for minor 2 (hit 1359.44) and then collapsed today. I have been discussing the plan was to “sell the rips” since mid-day Thursday, May 5th based the new Primary Wave 4 (P4) Expanded Flat count. Selling the “rips” down from 1354 on Friday, May 6th and down from 1359 on Tuesday, May 10th has been very profitable. Both “rips” have been quickly retraced back down 19/24 points and to the 1335/1335 area.
The primary count (white) is that minute (1) of minor 3-[C]-P4 is underway with a target area of 1332. From there, minute (2) could bounce up 50% to 62% to the 1345/1348 area. For this primary count the 1354/1357 gap down should not be closed during the wave (2) retrace. After this, minute (3) of minor 3-[C]-P3 should be a devastating drop to below 1295, breaking all key technical moving average support along the way. Breaking the 1329 low from Thursday, May 5th is a key for this primary count to really begin to unfold. Ultimately, P4 should reach the 1245/1257 pivot area by mid to late June. Just remember for the primary count, we are in a major [C]-P4 headed down and the surprises should come to the down-side.
The alternate count (blue) is that minute (c) of minor 4-[5]-P3 completed today at 1336.36. I’m looking for minor 5-[5]-P3 to reach the 1381 area by the end of May. This alternate count is for an Ending Diagonal (ED) major [5]-P3 and this 1335/1336 area around the lower yellow channel line needs to hold to keep this ED count alive. Also remember that even if the ED alternate count for [%]-P3 does play-out in the next couple of weeks, there will still be a devastating P4 drop coming for the summer of 2011. Winter is coming…
Support is at the 1329 area, then the 1315 pivot and 1313/1319 gap. Resistance is at the 1354/1357 gap and the 1363 pivot.
SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
mikesmith53 said
Can’t beat this site anywhere! Pugman, you are Secretariat of wave analysts, leaving the rest of them 30 lenghts behind at the finish line.
pugsma said
LOL…nice…thanks.
jacksoo said
Congratulations PUG while many of your peers have been in a constant state of flux you have been definitive and importantly correct in your call.
Shawn said
Amazing call, Steve…thank you.
Grand said
Nice calls Pug. Sorry been a little busy at work as of late. Here are my thoughts I thought may be worth sharing.
http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2011/05/51111-eod-update.html
Lana said
Back from San Francisco (Lord I hate that place!). Left my shorts on, didn’t have to sweat too much in them per your outlook. Looking good. Sure missed reading u tho. Thanks for carrying on Steve.
Tim Knight said
I have never heard of anyone hating San Francisco. Wow.
buylo said
actually she meant to say Palo Alto, ;>)
Lana said
Tim,
Iknow, Iknow everyone is bamboozled by SF. The dang place is COLD! Winds this weekend were gusts of 45mph. The place is getting dirtier by the day (ala Paris). The homeless are everywhere and the drivers are maniacs! Although, on the drive up through the west side farming on I5 billboards were every 40 miles proclaiming that Jesus was coming May 21 and only taking 144,000 with him. When we got into SF we saw two billboards on the way to Oakland Airport inviting everyone to a picnic and music fest on May 21st. They both were from the Atheist Society. So there is some saving grace in that god forsaken city.
calidremin said
Best of Breed!!!!Great analysis!And there was a movie analogy today! Thank you.
pugsma said
Glad you liked hte “Catch Me If You Can” reference.
Lana said
A you tube for you Steve. It’s really great specially if you love dogs!
pugsma said
Very cute Lana.
JimDC said
Thanks Pug, Stockchart’s 60 min rsi-5 being overbought the last two days correlated well with your count.
It was definitely a time be be cautious.
Bernadette said
You’re the man, PUG! Thanks.
pugsma said
You are welcome.
randy said
Thanks Steve, selling the rips is working very well!
9pin said
Kudo’s Steve! can’t say enough.. great catching another wave with you.
pugsma said
Nice trade 9pin.
jimallega said
can somebody tell me what “rips” stand for??????
pugsma said
It’s opposite of a “dip” that bottoms on support. A “rip” is sudden rise that tops at resistance. In a confirme downtrend every rip is sold into, as selling at resistance induces move selling pressure. Just like in a confirmed uptrend every dip into support is bought and the buying at support induces more buying pressure.
jimallega said
thanks got it
Lunker said
FYI primary and alt both say Blue….but we knew what you meant.
pugsma said
Fixed…thanks.
Bob said
Plenty of POMO injections to keep the market sideways. Doubt we break the 50dma this week. Machines still in control even though weakness abounds….
Sam said
POMO injection today still resulted in a big down day.
Bob said
Today was a demonstration just how much Pomo can move the market….:)
EspnFan said
After winter is coming…..then a war is coming too? Both references to “Games Of Thrones”.
9pin said
Steve, took your advise, looking at copper last year, looks like the highs are set apart almost to the day, will be interesting to see if the measured move lines up too. charts here http://9pin.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/copper-study-11may11.jpg
pugsma said
Awesome chart 9pin…great work!
jacksoo said
Hi PUG – what if on this leg down the 1329 was to be broken – wld that invalidate the bounce off 1332 or just postpone it. If postponing how far cld the drop theoretically go before a 50% to 62% bounce wld occur ?
pugsma said
The next target after 1332, where v=i, for minute (1) of 3-[C]-P4 would be 1326, where v=1.62*i.
tgarfield said
How about a stab at a Gold or silver chart?
Pedro Pereira said
Great, Great analyses PUG, as always.
The month of May has been falling in the results. But what matters is the annual result.
Where do you go SPX?
Do not mind the system, limit yourself to making money.
Greetings
http://spx500.blogspot.com/
maddux said
Steve , I have lost the password for may. Help!
delt1 said
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bluenoser13 said
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