March 1st, 2012: Update 2 – EOD
Posted by pugsma on March 1, 2012
5:00 pm EST: The last 8 to 10 trading days have created a lot of choppy overlapping waves in the SP-500 price with a slight upward bias, which is typical of an Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern that occurs after a long-winded bull run. The $NYMO bounced from -34 to -18 today, but is still extremely weak compared to the SP-500 price. The music is slowing and the SP-500 price should soon collapse to test the 1350 and then 1340 support zones. When it does collapse, it should do so in a very rapid and violent major [4]-P1-C3 wave correction of 40 to 50 points.
For the primary count it looks like wave (2) of minor A of major [4]-P1-C3 had some unfinished business and it back-test the top of the ED wedge below the over-throw level of 1378.04. The primary count should drop towards the 1355 level in a wave (3) of minor A, where (3)=1.62*(1). There is however a variant of the primary to be aware of and that is that yesterday’s late day low at 1364 was a wave iv of the wave (5) of the ED and now one more a-b-c move higher is underway to take out the 1378.02 high and test the 1386 pivot to complete minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3. Note the maximum level for the primary count variant of the ED is 1389, so that wave v < iii < i. With the close above the 1372 pivot today it makes this primary count variant more likely.
The alternate (blue) count remains less likely, unless a decisive break above the 1386 pivot ensues shortly for wave iii-(3) of minor 5 of major [3]-P-C3.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
pugsma said
The NYSE Summation Index has rolled over and gone to bear-cross. This has a good history of market significant market tops. Yet anothter topping indicator at this juncture.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93046581133&a=168906275&listNum=2&listNum=2
mika009 said
Thanks Steve!
mika009 said
At first I thought you kicked me out lol
pugsma said
Nasdaq 3000? We hit 2996.37 and it’s above that in AH.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-nasdaq-3-000-bigger-204003875.html
d said
seems like they want naz 3000 sp 1400 just to say it
LarryH said
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2012/03/nasdaq-forms-huge-double-bottom-on-pf-chart-compq.html?utm_source=pulsenews&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=Feed:+StockChartscom-DontIgnoreTheChart+%28StockCharts.com+-+Don%27t+Ignore+This+Chart%21%29
mehmet said
pls note that none of the markets closed above previous days high ..
mika009 said
Here you go $tran (transports). This market is full of free stimulus money
slater9 said
HMMM…..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MDY&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=p14489551698&a=129579595&r=7293&cmd=print
Denali92 said
MIDCAPS have been on FIRE relative to the Small caps – New ALL TIME HIGH in the spread hit yesterday at 170 – previous record was 161.5 last May …. AND even more amazing…. spread was 140 on 3-Feb – with no real market movement that is just one MASSIVE move….
The resistance is definitely clear for MDY.
Thanks,
-D
ROX said
Something interesting to note… 1382.03 is a 78.6% retracement of the move from the all time S&P high (1576) to the March ’09 low (667). Maybe the end of the ED wants to tag 1382, or it could be done.
LarryS said
AAII sentiment out tonight:
Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
March 1: 44.51% 28.66% 26.83%
February 23: 43.69% 28.80% 27.51%
Bill S said
Crash confidence index still down near 2009 lows despite market rally to new highs…
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/3/1/yales-crash-confidence-index-still-depressed.html
LightBearer7 said
Another observation on the NYSE Summation Index Steve showed us earlier. It seems to peak in wave 3, and then make a lower high as the market approaches wave 5 to create a reliable negative divergence for a significant correction to unfold thereafter. This negative divergence tends to build at significant market tops, and is fitting now for a Major [3] top.
slater9 said
GLD-was the move to.382…”it”?…possibilities…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=17&id=p13690062895&a=259349701&r=6313&cmd=print
slater9 said
back in the day(’84) there was this guy named prechter who was the hottest hand around and could do no wrong. at the same time there was a young guy named tom demark running a daily update service ”futures forcast”,, pre computers you actually had to call in to get updates and sometimes he’d pick up and chat a while… fast forward(’12) prechter is…..well prechter,, and tom demark has gone on to fame and fortune and is the hottest(non elliot ) hand around… has called for a 5% pullback in here that is numbingly frustrating to traders as some things will not pullback at all and some 15- 20%…
slater9 said
traders who shorted completed abd at line at fib now want to see the geometry give way……..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=8&id=p28207727061&a=172676644&r=4396&cmd=print
gann360 said
Update to the Price Vibration Chart on QQQ:
http://screencast.com/t/ArkLzAuHX
slater9 said
traders from both sides are being invited to position themselves…… running out of room
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p43007344375&a=148331065&r=6911&cmd=print
Mike said
Hey Bill S (or anyone), do you have a $NYMO number? Wondering if we can bounce above 0 today — that might give a hint that we are in the running wave 4 (and likely small caps are set to explode upward).
pugsma said
Mike: $NYMO would have clear +20 to show enough strength to remove concern here. Anywhere in the -20 to +20 zone is no man’s land for $NYMO and is the area from which market corrections begin in earnst.
mika009 said
-27
Mike said
Thanks Mika. And thanks Steve for keeping us on top of this very important indicator.
slater9 said
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p44037079679&a=225602882&r=3310&cmd=print
TMF said
Steve, you mentioned yesterday a ‘running correction’…
I have been thinking the same thing for over a week now wathcing groups like IYT, REITs, XLF, Small Caps. They have been correcting (consolidating sideways) for almost a month now. In bull markets rotation happens under the surface so the SPX might not correct as much as investors rotate.
A lot of charts look like they did or are in 3-4 (maybe major 4?) so I really like the idea of a running correction.
Even though some indicators are rolling over (summation, NYMO), they could be re-setting as the markets pause below Dow 13k, SPX 1375 and NASDAQ 3k. Even a Put/Call chart I use is not where it should be for a BIG drop…
Here is a VIX update…the VIX has contracted in the BB and a BIG move is coming…here is a 30 min…I see a little H&S that if it breaks will cause the VIX to drop to 12 !!!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=30&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=t49246658952&a=143799347&r=432&cmd=print
pugsma said
TMF: Let me be clear. The SP-500 is NOT in a running correction. Neither is the DJAI or Nasdaq. The SP-500 is clearly still in the topping part of major [3]-P1-C3 (pirmary count) or still have some room to run higher as minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 extends to 1406 to 1426 (alternate count).
The Russel-2000 “maybe” in a running correction for a wave 4 of some degree (i.e. minor 4 of major [3]-P1-C3 or major [4]-P1-C3).
TMF said
Thx Steve. Got it.
gann360 said
Interesting Observation:
Today is 666 Calender Days from the Flash Crash
& 144 T Days from the August,9th Low Hits Next Monday -Tuesday
pugsma said
TLL is up big today.
slater9 said
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=t41995557618&a=149481926&r=601&cmd=print
slater9 said
responding to ,886 algo from yesterday…..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p89331912559&a=225953782&r=7946&cmd=print
pat said
copper near top of range, fcx trying to hold 200ma….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p93702164881
traderd said
The .RUT has broken the 811.?? level that PUG mentioned indicating Major 4 has possibly begun.
pugsma said
Traderd: I think there is little doubt that the Russel-2000 is experiencing it’s major [4]-P1-C3 correction. It’s been going on for over a month now, making it similar in time to the major [2]-P1-C3 correction during Nov 2011. The Russel major [4]-P1-C3 must hold above the 770 level, which is the top of major [1]-P1-C3. It’s at 808 right now.
The Russel-2000 length in time of the correction for [4]-P1-C3 may mean that the SP-500, DJIA and Nasdaq may only experience a sharp and shallow major [4]-P1-C3 correction over next 3 to 4 trading days. It could hold teh 1340 to 1350 support area.
pugsma said
Here we go. Primary count with the 1378.04 top is looking good now. Looking for (3) of A of major [4]-P1-C2 to reach 1355.
traderd said
yep, Looks like we could gain a little downside traction from here. UUP is having a nice day
slater9 said
traders will look to lift some of their tradee at target
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=12&id=p39998363596&a=185010672&r=2691&cmd=print
Michael said
Just touched the bottom of the fork 56.17
Michael said
Oops, just over shot the bottom.
slater9 said
called it a day at 5600
pugsma said
A break of 1363.81 would basically kill off the variant of the primary that has the ED moving higher than 1378.05.
pugsma said
A weak close near the 1363 pivot support today, would set-up nicely for a BIG gap down on Monday to complete (3) of minor A.
pugsma said
The RUT’s has busted it’s lower BB at 808. It’s target for the completion of major [4]-P1-C3 should be near it’s rising 50-day SMA of 789.
mika009 said
If russel is to bottom at 50DMA then downside for Nasdaq and SPX will hardly be down coz I don’t see Nasdaq 100 pulling in 100 points lower and russel is still able to hold 50 DMA.
pugsma said
Mika009: Yep, this is a strong possibility here. The SPX, Nasdaq and DJIA don’t see much of a correction below say 1350 support.
pugsma said
Remember the last time the SP-500 had a significant correction it drop to the 20-day SMA support at about 1300. The rising 20-day SMA is at 1357 today.
pugsma said
There is an interesting prossibility that arrise here. If we get a lower close than Wednesday’s 1365 AND the $NYMO close above -37, then we’d have a POSITIVE $NYMO divergence. However, since some said the $NYMO was at -27 with the SPX at about 1371 earlier, I’d think the $NYMO would below -37 if the SPX closes below 1365. Just keep an eye on it…
Michael said
Yep, -40.27
LarryH said
anyone see that weird spike in the iwm in the intra day charts?
pugsma said
Oh no, not the Illuminati?
LarryH said
lol,, But, is this possible..just a small pull back in the rut? not much volume yet in the iwm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p01925293497&a=246009087&cmd=print
Michael said
Look at the last hour of SPY yesterday, 136.93. Telling?
mika009 said
Aug end 2010 QE2 hint was given- Nasdaq moved 650 points on QE program. Right now Nasdaq moved 500 points from December 2011 mid low without any >1% pullback. Even shallow pullback looks risky to load up on longs.
mika009 said
Nasdaq moved about 600 points.
gann360 said
Transports $TRAN Daily Chart:
http://screencast.com/t/2UNhkkqbRY
slater9 said
and so it goes….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=12&id=t85120205362&a=185010672&r=6647&cmd=print
slater9 said
close up
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=8&id=t98588996704&a=172676644&r=3629&cmd=print
Shaz said
Thanks for TNA chart/s.
gann360 said
My Buddy
Jeff Cooper
Just Sent me This EMail:
From the last big low in AAPL in early sep 2010
To yesterday is apx 548 days AAPL hit 548 yesterday,
A Little Price/Time Vibration
pugsma said
Russel-2000 looks like it needs one more wave lower below 800.13 before it moves back above 811.27. If it moves back above 811.27 first, this significant correction in the Russel-2000 has likely ened.
pugsma said
Russel-2000 also has a gap to fill at 792.66 and with the 50-day at 789 this would be a nice target area.
Michael said
If we close right here, 790 would be Mondays S1 pivot.
pugsma said
And finally the minor 4 of major [3]-P1-C3 low of the Russel-2000 was at 787.49. Major [4] could target this minor 4 area too. It all matches up.
mika009 said
Russel is the weakest so would not be surprised to see russel coming to 760 where is has 200DMA when other indices correct.
pugsma said
Mika009, but E-wave rules the Russel-2000 correction during major [4] is limited to remain above 769.46.
mehmet said
looks like today will be the second inside day, even narrower than yesterday ..tension is increasing ..
mehmet said
can be nr4 day on monday..
James said
ES E-mini March ’12 has closed up eight weeks in a row. Settle last Friday was 1363.25.
pugsma said
The Russel-2000 Full-STO Oscilator has reset to sub-20 at 10! This is as low as it got during the major [2] correction in Nov 2011. This screams that the Russel-2000 is likely experience the final stages of it’s major [4] correction.
pugsma said
I think the markets will put in a major [4] correction low early next week, likely by Tuesday. For the SP-500, DJAI and Nasdaq it might a very shallow correction.
LarryH said
Thank you, Steve for the up dates
pugsma said
I’d really like to see the $NYMO get down to -50 to -60 EOD today and then put in a positive divergence with respect to a new SPX price low on Tuesday to comfirm the bottom.
Michael said
TNA looks like it has a small bear flag forming with the 5 wave down to go.
Denali92 said
Pug,
I asked this back in Jan – in relation to the RUT and MID whether they were operating under a totally different count as they never had that Wave 4 correction that the SPX did to 1300 – you seemed to think that was possible.
You may have already answered it for people, but as the SPX traded in to its break out day which is Jan 18th and the RUT seems to be operating on a totally different count (as is the MID and NAS), is it not possible that the RUT goes back to that ‘recognition day range of around 770?
Then just leaves the MID and the NAS as ??? marks
The RUT did not follow the SPX in Jan and it did not follow it in Feb, so something tells me that it is not going to follow it in March either….
Thanks,
-D
p.s. While the quick correction is probable due to the employment week dynamics, I am liking more and more the idea that next week is an all RED week and we bottom early in opex…. as that would fit your rapid ‘crash’ correction idea, which I do like.
mehmet said
Steve, I was looking at the $nymo chart , july 2010 S&P at 1025 nymo is at 90 , on nov 2010 S&P at 1200 and nymo at -90.. so it traveled from +90 to -90 but price went up in opposite ..It looks like in strong trends nymo like other oscillators ie macd may be not that reliable ? what do you think ?
pugsma said
Mehmet: You can’t compare an oscillator against absolute SPX price levels and make any predictions. It’s a momentum based oscillator the tells the internal health of a market on a relative basis to “current” price action.
ronnM said
Fortunately for me pug’s targets trump lack of experience. I following norms for indicator picking so far but my reliables and now the bench are shooting at both baskets. Losing my perspective on their relative weightings over eccentric times like this apparent topping-or-is-it. Is there a way to look at this function or a pattern to compressing one, floating another .. , or a book?? Past 10 weeks have been good for me; like to keep it or at least the roll that brought it. I did get mostly out at 1360 (except for aapl; it stopped out yesterday). I like movies and kept seeing the look on the cop’s face when he spots all the Marx Brothers hiding behind the walking horse: too many legs.
LarryH said
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PCX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p23310829900&a=226702992&listNum=1&cmd=print
You would think that I’d have better things to do than to watch this all day. Waiting for a rejection of 6.92 but it just sits at 6.91. 20% short position in this equity. Not advocating .. just showing price and volume here.
Mike said
$NYMO update? QQQ basically at upper daily bb: $RUT solidly below…. one of the weirder set ups I have seen in a while
Chrys said
-38
Mike said
Geez, seems to be getting it’s value from the $RUT. Looking back, it is exceedingly rare to have the $RUT close outside its lower bb. Granted the bb are tight right now, but a close outside should not be happening in a wave 4 situation. Look back over the bull market for three years, never happened except in primary corrections (this August, October) and the flash crash.
pat said
mike u sure about that wave 4/outside bb incidence?
Bill S said
Either RUT is the canary in the coal mine (leading the majors down) or it’s the hook to set the bear trap and will play rapid catch up to the majors. Should know by early next week which it is…
Mike said
Pat, so this isn’t totally true that the $RUT never goes slightly below its lower bb, in a correction. But the problem is, we really haven’t started any type of real correction yet. The times the $RUT does dip below is when the heat is on the broad market and the babies are getting thrown way out of the bathtub (small caps). Se haven’t really started a correction yet in the broad market, so this action (I believe) is unprecedented.
pugsma said
Mike: It’s called a “fractured” market. And it can happen right be for a major correction or crash.
kalinm said
Still hanging on the market is the pretty substantial negative divergence between SPX and copper. Copper has been getting dragged upward by the market, the opposite of what we should be seeing. Maybe during the big wave 2 correction coming up (later this spring), copper will hold up and lead the SPX up in the big major wave 3. Could be a very lucrative wave 3 to get into the lead dog sectors (I would expect copper and transports to be among those). Speaking of lucrative, transports (by impulsive wave definition) should vastly outperform other sectors — and soon! It’s wave 1 overlap from late October is only 1.5% lower. Since it has a very short wave 3, the wave 5 should be a doozy in that sector.
Mike said
Sorry Steve, technical glitch. kalinm is me, Mike. I’ll be sure to stick with Mike from now on.
TJC said
IBM 200 on close??
goughman said
what’s nymo reading? please
Aurelia said
-39.5
Denali92 said
PUG,
A repeat from 34 above – If you can get inspired this weekend, it would be GREAT to get the musings on alternative RUT counts – as I really do not think it corrected like the SPX in late Jan – so maybe it needs to be looked at it in another way…
You really may be on to something with the fractured market – as the spread changes we are seeing are unbelievable – a 10% spread move this week in RUT – MID 158 to 174 that is HUGE!
Anyway, HAVE a GREAT WEEKEND!
-D
********************************
Pug,
I asked this back in Jan – in relation to the RUT and MID whether they were operating under a totally different count as they never had that Wave 4 correction that the SPX did to 1300 – you seemed to think that was possible.
You may have already answered it for people, but as the SPX traded in to its break out day which is Jan 18th and the RUT seems to be operating on a totally different count (as is the MID and NAS), is it not possible that the RUT goes back to that ‘recognition day range of around 770?
Then just leaves the MID and the NAS as ??? marks
The RUT did not follow the SPX in Jan and it did not follow it in Feb, so something tells me that it is not going to follow it in March either….
Thanks,
-D
p.s. While the quick correction is probable due to the employment week dynamics, I am liking more and more the idea that next week is an all RED week and we bottom early in opex…. as that would fit your rapid ‘crash’ correction idea, which I do like.