June 11th, 2012: Update 2 – EOD:
Posted by pugsma on June 11, 2012
6:35 pm EST: Today’s large intra-day reversal from the gap up to 1335 is very bearish at least ST (alt blue count) and most likely IT (primary count) to LT (alt red count). Interesting the SPX price failed today right at the 34-day EMA as it did in August 2011 on the first attempt to cross this area. I showed this today on a SPX daily chart at around noon today while the SPX was trading near 1325. The SPX closed today at 1308 after the failure was confirmed on a break of the 1315 pivot.
Primary count is that major [B]-P2-C3 ended today at 1335 and major [C]-P2-C3 began headed for 1249 (50% retrace of P1-C3) to 1207 (62% retrace of P1-C3). The SPX is working on minor 1 of [C] down towards 1300 to 1291. We had wave (1) and (2) early today and then wave (3) late today. The wave (3) target is 1303, where (3)=1.62*(1). Once minor 1 ends at 1291 to 1300, I’m looking for a minor 2 bounce to a least the 1315 pivot before minor 3 plunges to at least the 1257 pivot. A move back above 1335 will invalidate this primary count as currently labeled.
The alternate (blue) count is that minor 2 of major [1]-P3-C3 is playing out as an expanded flat with a target of 1301 where (c)=1.62*(a). The move down from the minor 1 high of 1329 to 1308 early Friday was wave (a) and today early move up to 1335 was just a (b) wave, where (b)=1.23*(a). Now wave (c) of minor is headed for 1303. This 1303 level will put in the right shoulder of large IHS pattern. Once minor 2 ends at 1303, I’m expecting minor 3 to head toward the 1386 pivot, where minor 3 - 1.23*minor 1. Ultimately major [1] should reach the IHS target are of 1403 to 1422.
Suppot is at the 1303 and then the 1291 pivots. Resistance is at the 1315 pivot and then the 1335 IHS neckline.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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